Weather Forecast

Extended Forecast  |  Significant/Hazardous Weather  |  Recreational Forecast  |  Detailed Discussion  |  Farm & Garden  |  Wind by Elevation  |  Temperature by Elevation

Detailed Forecast

Thursday Night:
Becoming partly cloudy south. Mostly cloudy north, with scattered mountain snow showers, and a chance of rain or snow showers in the valleys, all tapering off after midnight. Lows from the mid 20s to around 30 south and in the Champlain Valley, low to mid 20s elsewhere north. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming light and variable east of the Greens.

Friday:
Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers of snow or rain in New York, a rising chance elsewhere, mainly in the afternoon; a trace to an inch of snow, mainly over high terrain, except 1 to 4 inches in the northern mountains, and in far northern valleys. Valley highs in the mid to upper 40s in the south, and mid 30s to lower 40s north; some lower 30s far north. Winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night:
Mostly cloudy. A mix of rain and mountain snow in the south, diminishing. Snow likely near and north of Route 2, diminishing after midnight, with storm totals of 2 to 5 inches; locally higher over high terrain, and near the international border, and locally lower in the Champlain and Connecticut valleys. Lows in the low to mid 20s north, and upper 20s to lower 30s in the south. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming northwest and diminishing.

Extended Forecast

Saturday:
Mostly cloudy. Chance of a mountain snow shower. Highs from the mid 30s to around 40 north, and upper 30s to lower 40s south, except mid to upper 40s in southeastern valleys, and in the Hudson Valley. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night:
Chance of rain or snow, mainly late. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Sunday:
Snow likely, and possibly mixing with rain in the valleys, mainly south  Highs in the 30s, some 40s far south.

Sunday Night:
Snow likely, again possibly mixing rain in the valleys, mainly south. Lows in the 20s north to near 30 south.

Monday:
Chance of snow or rain, mainly in the morning. Highs in the 30s north to near 40 south.

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Significant/Hazardous Weather

A clipper low will bring snow from Friday into Friday night, the most likely recipients being the northern mountains and far northern valleys. After a break on Saturday, an even stronger and more widespread snowfall will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night.

***The Spring Equinox occurs Friday morning at 10:46 AM EDT***

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Recreational Forecast

Mountain Forecast:
The summits today can expect lots of clouds, with a few afternoon snow showers north. Light to moderate south and southwest winds, helping temperatures to modify several degrees. Friday should see some breaks of early sun, then clouds thickening and lowering with snow developing, perhaps rain at mid-slopes and south. Light west winds becoming moderate from the south to southwest, and temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees. The outlook for the weekend starts with summits in the clouds Saturday, with any morning snow showers diminishing. Clouds lifting, with a few breaks in the afternoon. Light to moderate northwest winds, with temperatures cooling a few degrees. On Sunday, cloudy, lowering in the afternoon from the west as the chance of snow or rain increases. Light winds increasing from the south in the afternoon, while temperatures warm a few to several degrees.

Wind At Lower Elevations:
Winds today from the south near 10 mph, increasing to 10 to 15 mph from the Green Mountains west, with a few gusts to 25 mph. Tonight, winds south to southwest near 10 mph, diminishing to light later at night. Winds on Friday light, becoming southwest near 10 mph, steadiest from the Green Mountains west. The outlook for Saturday calls for winds becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph.

For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV

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Detailed Discussion

I’m always impressed by the strength of the March sunshine, compared to a month or two ago. High pressure cresting over us yesterday was a great passive solar day, as south and west-facing windows took advantage of the Sun to warm things up nicely inside, even when temperatures were a bit reluctant to rise outdoors. That high moved off to our east last night, extending southwest through the Carolinas and Georgia this morning. As it continues to weaken and drift away, a developing storm far to our north near James Bay in northwest Quebec will rotate a warm front to our north, encouraging a milder southwest wind today, followed by an approaching cold front from the northwest tonight. That front has only mediocre amounts of moisture to work with, which likely means just a few passing, localized snow showers north tonight into early Friday. This front lacks much push in terms of cold air, leaving temperatures a bit on the mild side into the weekend. Coordinating with that will be a series of minor systems heading east, close to the US-Canadian border. For the most part, this keeps us on the mild side of that track, leading to a few episodes of rain or snow showers, the first coming tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday morning. The timing, starting in the afternoon, means rain is more likely at lower elevations, with wet snow over the hills and mountains. Then, at night, slightly colder temperatures will see snow levels drop overnight tomorrow night, with some accumulations possible, perhaps an inch or two across the higher terrain. This disturbance continues east on Saturday, with any early rain or snow tapering off, followed by some periods of sunshine, enough for a relatively mild afternoon, in the upper 30s and 40s. The next storm system sliding through Sunday into Monday involves a warm front lifting north ahead of it on Sunday, again featuring either snow or rain to start, a better chance of snow over the higher terrain north, mainly rain south, changing to mainly rain as the storm tracks through northern portions of the region late Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front follows, as well as some drier air, so that the rain changes back to snow over the higher terrain north, perhaps with some accumulations, while the northern valleys and the south see rain showers possibly changing to snow showers but tapering off before much if any accumulation can occur. Slight changes in the temperatures, and the track of the storm could alter the rain versus snow, so be sure to check updated forecasts through the weekend. cold front and its position, as well as its potential movement to the south. There is considerable latitude in the computer model projections, leading to plenty of uncertainty as to the outcome. Some rain or snow becomes more likely from Sunday night into Monday, and is likely to be followed by another period of cold weather early next week. We’ll continue to refine the details, but you can expect any number of revisions over the next few days. Of far greater certainty, Spring starts tomorrow morning with the Spring Equinox at 10:46 AM. Of course, the First Day of Spring seems rather late considering the mild weather we’ve already seen this month. On the other hand, if you’re thinking about flowers blooming and green grass, expect that to be rather limited in the coming weeks.

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Farm & Garden

Rainfall Forecast:
The Farm and Garden forecasts will resume in mid-April.

Drying Conditions:

Frost:

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Wind by Elevation

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Temperature by Elevation

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